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Climate Monitoring, Analysis, and Modeling
The results of sound climate change monitoring, analysis, and modeling are key inputs to the development of high-quality impact and mitigation analyses. Therefore, this research area is integral in providing policymakers with the data and information they need to make effective policies and regulations. The objectives of this research area fall into three key categories:
Compilation and Analysis of Historical Climate and Measurement of Key Variables. The purpose of research conducted in this area is to develop baselines of climate data and related variables to provide researchers with a historical context of present and past conditions in California. Results from these studies will facilitate an understanding of how much climate has already changed in California and how much of the change is attributable to natural causes. In addition, these studies will enable researchers to better identify signals of changing climate.
Intercomparison of Regional Climate Models. This area focuses on determining which models are most appropriate for providing inputs and assessing regional climate changes affecting California. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulate weather and climate on a global scale, impact and adaptation analyses require data at finer resolutions. Research in this area is key to identifying the best methods for downscaling GCMs and facilitating the development of regional climate models (RCMs) for California.
Development of Climate Scenarios for California. Successful research conducted under the first two categories will inform the development of climate scenarios for California. These scenarios will illustrate the likelihood and severity of changes to weather and climate in California, including precipitation, average temperature, extreme heat days, and sea levels.